Monetary policy rate in Mexico due to the effects of Covid-19

The economic crisis feeded by Covid-19 has produced supply and demand shocks that affect the potential product and consumer preferences, an impact that suggests that the neutral real interest rate was modified and, therefore, the real interest rate should be adjusted so as not to generate a deeper economic contraction in Mexico. We estimate the value of the neutral rate using the Laubach and Williams method, based on the Kalman filter, and confirm the results with a cointegrated vector of autoregressions (CVAR) model. The results show that the neutral real rate, theoretically consistent with the full employment rate and the inflation target in Mexico, is reduced to 0.1 % and the nominal to 3.1 %. The empirical determination of the neutral rate based on two different methods for Mexico and its use to approximate how expansive the monetary policy should be in Mexico in the COVID stage. The results suggests the existence of enough room for an expansionary monetary policy that allows facing the crisis and boost economic activity for at least three years. © 2020 Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas. All rights reserved.

Physical activity, resilience, emotions, moods, and weight control, during the COVID-19 global crisis.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed at exploring the relationships between physical activity, weight control, and psycho-social aspects of the COVID-19 lockdown, which have characterized the Israeli population's behavior during the COVID-19 global crisis. DESIGN: Cross-sectional survey research. METHODS: Participants included 1855 men and women aged 18 and above, from different regions in the country and representing different sectors. They were recruited through the social media in a "snowball" sampling, and filled out a self-administered six-part survey: Demographic background, the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ), the positive and negative affect scales (PANAS), the Conor and Davidson resilience scale, a questionnaire for measuring depressive symptoms, and questions regarding weight change based on the Israeli National Health and Nutrition (MABAT) survey. RESULTS: Routine physical activity (PA) was reported by 76.3% of the participants before the lockdown, 19.3% stopped exercising during this period, and 9.3% began exercising during the lockdown. The participants who were physically active during the lockdown period reported a higher level of resilience and positive feelings, and a lower level of depression, compared with those who were not physically active. People who were physically active during the lockdown maintained their weight compared with those who were inactive. Concerning weight change, 44.8% of the respondents maintained their weight, and a higher percentage of people reported weight gain than those who reported weight loss. CONCLUSIONS: Continuous PA before and during the COVID-19 lockdown were associated with higher resilience and positive emotions, and depressive symptoms, in people aged 18 and above. Although a causal link cannot be established, in light of the results of the present study, encouraging physical activity may contribute to improving mental health and a sense of self-efficacy, as well as to maintaining weight during a crisis.